Small tropical Islands also exposed to extreme humid heat by the end of the century

This research article examines how extreme humid heat is projected to intensify across small tropical islands by the end of the twenty-first century. Using bias-corrected CMIP6 climate model projections combined with weather station observations, the study overcomes the limitations of global climate models that often fail to adequately represent small islands. The analysis uses the Heat Index, which combines temperature and humidity, to assess future heat stress under climate change.

The findings show that tropical islands, particularly those closest to the equator, are expected to experience substantially more frequent and intense humid heat events, alongside longer humid heatwaves that could reach dangerous levels for human health. The study identifies these projected conditions as a growing threat to millions of people living on tropical islands and provides a practical approach for estimating future humid heat on islands across the tropics. The research contributes to understanding climate-related health risks and supports evidence-based adaptation planning for vulnerable island communities.