A probabilistic performance-based framework for heat vulnerability and risk assessment of buildings

This paper examines how to better assess heat-related risks in buildings as climate change intensifies heat hazards. While many risk assessment frameworks exist for different hazards, heat stress at the building scale is often addressed through simplified building codes rather than comprehensive risk models. To address this gap, the study proposes a probabilistic framework based on performance-based engineering principles that integrates hazard analysis, building performance assessment, fragility modelling, and loss estimation. The approach uses Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainties related to climate conditions, building characteristics, and occupant behaviour.

The proposed framework demonstrates how heat-related risks can be quantified in terms of social, economic, and environmental impacts. A case study on a multi-story building shows that under high-warming scenarios, energy demand and carbon costs could increase by about 13%, while heat-related mortality may nearly triple in naturally ventilated buildings. The analysis also indicates that annualized losses—expressed through probabilistic loss functions—could rise significantly, with cost and carbon metrics increasing by up to 50% and mortality risk rising sharply. These findings highlight the importance of integrating heat risk into building design and resilience planning, particularly through strategies that improve passive survivability.