Multi-hazard scenarios of extreme compounded events at the local scale under climate change

This study introduces a methodology for assessing multi-hazard scenarios of extreme compounded events, and their duration, using daily time series of surface variables from high-resolution climate simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The aim was to investigate the return level extremes of 20- and 50-year periods of hazards, occurring within specific durations and concurrent extreme values of other surface variables, for selected locations in Greece.

The assessment revealed the high level of geographical dependence in the projected occurrence, intensity, and duration of compounded multi-hazard extremes, emphasising the need for high spatial resolution climate data for investigation. The highlights of the findings include a significant increasing trend of compounded multi-hazard extremes:

• Hot days and tropical nights
• Milder winter minimum temperatures with lower rainfall extremes
• Hotter and windier events of shorter duration
• Longer precipitation extremes with increased extreme temperatures

These findings showcase the impact of climate change on extreme compounds, observing significant changes in their duration, intensity, and temporal occurrence.