Integrated method for fragility assessment of railway embankments under rainfall-induced landslides

This work presents a climate change-informed modeling framework for assessing the inoperability of interdependent critical infrastructures exposed to NHs. The framework combines SF-based generation of spatially coherent hazard scenarios from historical data and climate projections with a multi-state DIIM to evaluate cascading effects across a SoS representation of interdependent infrastructures. Critical Infrastructures (CIs) are interdependent and, thus, vulnerable to scenarios of cascading effects, e.g., initiated by natural hazardous events like flooding, windstorms, heat waves, etc, which can lead to partial or complete inoperability. 

Results from the coupled SF–DIIM framework highlight that, in the present case study, climate change affects systemic response mainly through the modification of frequency and spatial disruption patterns, rather than the hazard intensities.