Institutional pathways of anticipatory action and their effects on disaster governance effectiveness : A comparative study of the Philippines and Bangladesh

This thesis examines how different forms and degrees of institutionalization of anticipatory action influence the effectiveness of disaster governance, conceptualized along the dimensions of timeliness and coherence. It develops a qualitative comparative case study of the Philippines and Bangladesh, two highly climate-vulnerable countries with different institutional pathways for embedding AA in their disaster management architectures.

Ultimately, while this thesis reveals that the institutionalizing anticipatory action involves structural trade-offs rather than linear progress, it also underscores the value of the governance frameworks already in place. As over 35% of crises globally are modelable. Yet only one dollar in every five thousand of crisis finance reaches low-income countries in the form of prearranged financing (Center for Disaster Protection, 2025). The gap between AA’s potential and its institutional development is a key contemporary governance challenge. The Philippines and Bangladesh show that closing this gap requires not only stronger institutions but also systems better suited to the populations they are meant to protect.