The increasing risk of heatwaves to vulnerable populations in eastern Australia

This study investigates historical trends in heatwave characteristics across New South Wales (NSW), identifies regions with increasing exposure in recent decades, and assesses risks to vulnerable populations using a combined heatwave risk framework. Using 5 km gridded temperature data, the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) was calculated to assess heatwave duration, intensity, frequency, and seasonality of heatwaves annually from 1910 to 2020.

Results reveal a significant increase in heatwave exposure along the eastern seaboard, southeast, central, northern, and far-west NSW over the past two decades (2003–2022). Emerging heatwave risks were particularly evident for vulnerable communities in the far-west Local Government Areas (LGAs), northern and western Sydney, the Central Coast, and Lake Macquarie.