Impact of heat stress on subjective well-being in Tanzania

This study estimates the causal impact of heat stress on subjective well-being in Tanzania by linking three waves of household panel data (2008-2013) with daily CHIRTS heat index measurements. Using a fixed effects ordered logit model, a one-degree Fahrenheit increase in the heat index results in a 0.236-point reduction in the probability of reporting higher life satisfaction, which is statistically significant at the 1% level. Effects are stronger among men and rural residents.

The researcher identifies nonlinear threshold effects, with well-being losses intensifying above 85°F. Results remain robust across alternative model specifications, heat metrics, and attrition adjustments. Findings highlight the urgent need for Africa-focused adaptation, including climate-resilient housing, occupational heat protections, and localized early warning systems.