The imminent risk bulletin (BRI): innovation from civil society for climate resilience in Mexico

The study addresses a critical operational void in Mexico's disaster risk management, where the United Nations Sendai Framework and World Meteorological Organisation guidelines for multi-hazard impact-based forecasting remain absent from federal and state public policies. Motivated by the tragic flooding in Poza Rica, Veracruz on October 10, 2025, in which at least 26 people were registered as dead or missing and over 16,000 homes were affected due to the lack of early warning systems, the Imminent Risk Bulletin (BRI) was developed by civil society as a bridge between hard scientific data and citizen action. Strictly aligned with the Sendai Framework's Priority 1 and Target G, the BRI adopts an Impact-Based Forecast (IBF) methodology that moves beyond descriptive meteorology to determine what weather events will cause on territory and infrastructure, offering exact georeferencing, physical consequence scenarios, and direct self-protection recommendations updated every 12 hours.

The BRI represents a significant methodological advancement over traditional meteorological forecasts, replacing quantitative cardinal-point data with qualitative impact scenarios and precise municipal-level georeferencing. Distributed exclusively when threats reach Maximum Danger level, the bulletin prevents warning fatigue while serving as a continuous vehicle for environmental education, empowering both citizens and officials to understand the physics of risk without depending on external interpretations. The BRI ultimately functions as a governance and resilience tool that equips Mexican society with the scientific intelligence needed to anticipate and absorb the increasingly severe impacts of climate change.