Global urban exposure near volcanoes is increasing: a spatio-temporal analysis from 1975 to 2030

In this study, the authors analyse urban expansion near 1264 volcanoes active in the Holocene (last ~11,000 years) using a range of spatial and demographic indicators across global, regional, and city scales. The study focuses on the exposure of city populations, looking at the presence of people in potentially hazardous areas, rather than on volcanic risk, which also depends on vulnerability. 

The findings indicate that city growth is not random but often occurs towards volcanoes, increasing proximity to hazards such as lava flows, ash fall, and pyroclastic events. Many cities are expanding and densifying simultaneously, placing more people and infrastructure at risk and increasing the likelihood of cascading impacts during eruptions. These trends highlight the urgent need to integrate volcanic hazard data into urban planning, land-use policies, and disaster preparedness strategies to reduce future risks.