Forecasting tephra fall building impacts and losses at Awu volcano, Sangihe Island (Indonesia)

The study examines the potential impacts of a VEI 4 eruption at Awu volcano in Indonesia by integrating tephra fall hazard modelling with building exposure and vulnerability data. Using probabilistic simulations, satellite imagery, and Bayesian fragility modelling, the research forecasts how ashfall could affect buildings across Sangihe Island and estimates potential structural damage and economic losses.

The results indicate that a large eruption would likely cause widespread building damage, particularly in districts closest to the volcano such as Kendahe and Tahuna. Financial losses could reach tens of millions of dollars, driven by the high proportion of vulnerable roofing materials. The study highlights the importance of preparedness measures, improved construction practices, and risk-informed planning to strengthen local resilience.