Future projections of burned area in Europe highlight the importance of human action

This research article explores future projections of burned area in Europe by assessing the influence of climate change and human actions. The authors used two fire models—SPITFIRE (process-based) and BASE (empirical/statistical)—both coupled with the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJmL. Simulations were conducted across five climate models and two socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0) from 2000 to 2100, incorporating variables such as climate, land use, population density, and Human Development Index (HDI). Separate experiments were run holding individual drivers constant to isolate their impacts. These methodologies enabled detailed continental-scale and regional analyses of fire regimes and responses across Europe.

Key findings include:

• Fire weather and fire management capacity strongly affect future wildfire activity.
• By 2100, intensified fire weather could increase annual burned area by +39% under SSP1-2.6 and nearly +192% under SSP3-7.0.
• Improvements in fire management capacity (proxied by HDI) could substantially moderate increases in burned area, reducing it by 72%–92% compared to scenarios without such improvements.
• Despite continued investments in fire management, fire activity still rises in about 55% of Europe's fire-prone regions under severe climate change.
• Authors recommend that while improved wildfire management can limit impacts of worsening fire weather, it may not fully offset the effects of strong climate change.