Area affected by wildfires in Europe could almost triple due to climate change
Increasingly hot, dry and windy conditions could substantially extend the area affected by wildfires across Europe, according to a new study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) with contributions from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research.
In a low-emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6), the researchers calculate that roughly 39% more land would be burned per year by the end of the century compared with today's average. In a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), it would be around 192%.
While emissions reductions are crucial to reducing the impacts of fires, the results also show that improvements in prevention, early detection and firefighting have a key role in helping reduce the extent of the affected area.
"Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe," said Maik Billing, researcher at PIK and lead author of the study published today in Global Change Biology.
"Our results indicate there could be widespread increases in burned area even under comparatively low warming of around 1.8°C. But if we emit more, and global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6°C, we see fires become much more prevalent, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, including areas that have not experienced many fires to date,"
- Maik Billing researcher at PIK
The researchers compared the projected annual average in 2070–2100 with the reference modeled period of 2000–2030.
Investment needed to keep up with rising fire conditions
The paper also employs a second approach developed by the Senckenberg co-authors that models the effects of human action to prevent, detect and fight fires in a world with higher temperatures. Continued improvements in fire management have the potential to reduce burned area by 92% in a 1.8°C future and 72% at roughly 3.6°C. However, the authors cautioned that the results could be optimistic when it comes to the efficacy of fire management in a much warmer climate.
"We see fire conditions worsening, so we need to invest more. If Europe increases investment in wildfire management—including training fire crews, proper equipment and good coordination—our projections show that this can make a significant difference. But if fires become really extreme, our ability to contain them might break down, and we do not yet know where this point is. The recent record fires in France clearly show that we cannot simply extrapolate from the experiences of the past,"
- Senckenberg scientist and study co-author Thomas Hickler.
The findings come amid another severe wildfire season in Europe. According to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), around 550,000 hectares (1.36 million acres) have burned across the EU as of Aug. 12, 2026, about two and a half times the 20-year average for this point in the year.
"The fires in France, Spain and Greece show how quickly hot, dry and windy weather conditions can stretch firefighters and their resources," says Kirsten Thonicke, PIK scientist and co-author of the study.
"With climate change, conditions could become so extreme that we really hit limits to what we can do to prevent and fight fires once they get to a certain size. So, reducing emissions is absolutely essential, together with strengthening local fire management,"
- Kirsten Thonicke, PIK scientist and co-author of the study