From forecast to action: using flood impact storylines to optimize mobile levee deployment and emergency response strategies

The article examines how municipalities can prepare for unprecedented floods by combining physically plausible flood scenarios with participatory planning involving firefighters, civil protection officers, and local authorities. Focusing on Burgdorf and Oberburg in Switzerland, the researchers developed flood impact storylines using synthetic design hydrographs, extreme precipitation reforecast scenarios, hydrodynamic flood modeling, and impact assessment. These storylines were then used to test how mobile levees could be deployed at key weak points along the river to protect exposed areas, critical infrastructure, and residents during severe flood events.

The findings show that mobile levees can be highly effective when deployed rapidly and at the right locations, especially for moderate-to-severe extreme floods. In some scenarios, they significantly reduced the number of affected buildings and monetary damage, while also delaying inundation by several hours, creating valuable time for evacuation and emergency action. Their effectiveness declines in the most extreme worst-case floods, but even then they can still provide some damage reduction or time gained. The study concludes that flood impact storylines are a practical tool for emergency planning, training, and decision-making because they help stakeholders understand how floods may unfold over time and when intervention strategies should shift from hazard reduction to evacuation and protection of critical infrastructure.