El Niño impacts on food security: Lessons from past El Niño events for 2026/27 preparedness (June 2026)

The study examines the main impacts of the 2015/16 and 2023/24 El Niño events on drought, flooding, displacement, and the agriculture sector. Analyzing these two El Niño events may provide useful insights into the types of challenges that could emerge during a future El Niño episode in each region.

Key messages from the study:

• Approximately 60 million people were affected in terms of food security and nutrition (largely through food availability being affected) and the most affected regions were Horn of Africa, Southern Africa, Central America Dry Corridor, Caribbean, Southeast Asia and Pacific.
• Around 50 million people were affected in 16 countries as of April 2024.
• The number of people who may be affected by the 2026/27 El Niño is not yet clear, given the remaining uncertainty around the event’s strength and spatial impacts