Comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment in data-scarce regions – a study focused on Burundi

This study presents a national-scale multi-hazard risk assessment for Burundi, focusing on flooding, torrential rains, landslides, earthquakes, and strong winds. It aims to address the challenges of limited and inconsistent data by integrating local and global datasets into a unified framework that combines hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components. The research applies probabilistic methods to estimate risk through Annual Average Loss (AAL) metrics, while also incorporating climate analysis and a socioeconomic vulnerability assessment to better understand the broader context of disaster risk in a data-scarce environment.

The findings demonstrate that floods and earthquakes are the main drivers of economic risk in Burundi, with an estimated total annual average loss exceeding USD 92 million, equivalent to about 2.5% of the national GDP. Risk distribution is influenced not only by hazard intensity but also by exposure and socioeconomic vulnerability, with urban areas like Bujumbura and agricultural regions particularly at risk. Despite data limitations and methodological uncertainties, the results provide a valuable baseline for identifying high-risk areas, prioritizing interventions, and improving disaster risk management strategies in similar data-scarce contexts.