Climate Hazard Assessment – Kikuube District

This report evaluates climate hazards in Uganda’s Kikuube District, where rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall fuel severe seasonal droughts and localized flooding. These climate shocks threaten both host communities and the Kyangwali Refugee Settlement, with environmental degradation, high population density, and land pressure further amplifying local vulnerability.

Key messages from the assessment:

• Kikuube District currently receives ~1,0147 mm of annual rainfall, projected to rise moderately to ~ 1,285 mm by mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. However, persistent dry-season deficits and higher evapotranspiration will intensify water stress, especially in areas like Kyangwali and Kabwoya.
• Temperatures are projected to increase 2.3-2.4°C during the hottest month and driest quarters, increasing the risk of seasonal drought, heat stress and the frequency of very hot days across agricultural and settlement areas. 
• Seasonal drought remains a dominant hazard, with the Standard Precipitation Index and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), which capture rainfall deficits and vegetation respectively, showing severe dryness across Kyangwali and the surrounding low-lying western areas, leading to vegetation stress, reduced crop yields, and limited pasture and water availability. 
• Flood risk is localized. The highest flood risk is in areas like Buhimba and Kyangwali, where low-lying terrain and poor drainage cause repeated damage to shelter, farmlands, and infrastructure