Climate change, heat stress and labour productivity

This report assesses the anticipated effects of heat stress on labour productivity and regional economic output across Europe from 2020 to 2100, taking into account differences in climate, occupation, and socio-economic factors. By the mid-21st century, 22 European regions are expected to suffer labour productivity losses exceeding 1% annually due to heat stress, increasing to 107 regions by the 2080s. Notably, 20 regions may face productivity declines of over 2%, with Murcia, Spain, potentially experiencing losses of up to 6% in the most extreme scenario.

Preliminary analysis based on projected labour market changes up to 2035 suggests that most countries will see a shift toward occupations less susceptible to heat stress. This shift could reduce overall vulnerability. However, the benefits from a changing workforce composition will only partially offset the growing losses driven by more severe heat stress.