Climate change amplifies surface fire hazard in the tropical Andes: high-resolution FlamMap simulations in southern Ecuador

This study evaluates the sensitivity of wildfire hazard to climate change in Molleturo Parish, Azuay Province, using high-resolution (20 m) spatial simulations with the FlamMap modeling framework. Fire behavior was simulated under baseline conditions (2014–2020) and future climate projections based on the RCP 8.5 scenario for 2030–2050 and 2051–2070. The Fire Behavior (FB) algorithm was used to estimate flame length, rate of spread, fireline intensity, and crown fire activity, which were integrated into a composite Fire Hazard Index. The Minimum Travel Time (MTT) algorithm was used to estimate burn probability and potential fire size. Surface-fire indicators increased modestly under the projected conditions, particularly during 2051–2070: the high flame-length class increased from 1.11% in the baseline period to 2.05%, and the high rate-of-spread class increased from 0.60 to 1.36%.

The area classified as high fire hazard increased from 0.250 to 3.713%, although low and moderate classes continued to dominate. Crown fire activity showed limited variation. Mean burn probability remained low and changed only slightly among scenarios, while mean simulated fire size varied from 57.98 to 62.10 ha and showed high variability. Several communities were located within or adjacent to areas of comparatively elevated burn probability, providing a basis for more detailed local prevention and preparedness assessments. These findings provide one of the first climate-sensitive wildfire hazard assessments in the tropical Andes and support the integration of wildfire screening into land-use planning and climate-adaptation strategies in southern Ecuador.