Census to sense: Decoding spatio-temporal dynamics of social vulnerability to disasters in Nepal

This study examines how social vulnerability to disasters evolved across Nepal between 2011 and 2021 using national census data and a Social Vulnerability Index (SOVI). The authors analyse vulnerability through two interacting components, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, to better understand how demographic change, migration, education, housing, infrastructure and access to services influence disaster risk.

Using Principal Component Analysis on municipal-level census data, the research maps vulnerability changes across all 753 municipalities and identifies distinct social vulnerability transition pathways. The findings show that national social vulnerability declined by 35% by 2021, as a 63% adaptive capacity gain outweighed a 28% rise in sensitivity. However, important geographic disparities remain, with Karnali, Sudurpaschim and Madhesh provinces continuing to face higher levels of vulnerability. The paper highlights the importance of addressing both adaptive capacity and underlying social drivers of vulnerability. It proposes a framework that can support risk-informed planning and disaster risk reduction in data-scarce settings worldwide using census data as a foundation for vulnerability assessment.