Bridging the gaps: vulnerability profiles to strengthen impact-based early warning and early action for floods and droughts in Kenya

This report addresses a critical gap in disaster preparedness in Kenya: early warning systems for floods and droughts that are tailored to the specific needs of the most vulnerable population groups. Rather than issuing generic hazard alerts, the report argues for impact-based early warning — shifting from telling people "what the weather will be" to "what the weather will do" to specific communities. It develops detailed vulnerability profiles for three at-risk groups: women and girls, persons with disabilities, and people living in refugee camp settings, drawing on field research including focus groups in Garissa, Dadaab, Homa Bay and Kisumu conducted in late 2024 and early 2025.

All three groups face compounding, intersecting vulnerabilities that existing early warning systems largely fail to address. Women and girls bear disproportionate care burdens, limited land rights and reduced access to information, making them more exposed to both drought-related food insecurity and flood-related gender-based violence. Persons with disabilities are routinely excluded from warnings delivered in inaccessible formats, face inaccessible evacuation routes and shelters, and suffer from a near-total absence of disability-disaggregated data. People in camp settings — Kenya hosts over 858,000 registered refugees — face overcrowding, movement restrictions, fragile WASH infrastructure and growing food insecurity worsened by recent cuts in international aid. Across all three groups, the report finds that vulnerability is not just about exposure to hazards but is deeply rooted in structural inequalities, and that early warning systems must be co-designed with at-risk communities to be truly effective.