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Climate risk analysis for identifying and weighing adaptation strategies in Burkina Faso's agricultural sector
This study examines the evolving trends for temperature and precipitation, future water availability and the country’s suitability to grow crops under different climate change scenarios in Burkina Faso. The study’s projections go up to 2090, offering opportunities not only to look into short-term trends (2030), but also to take into account medium (2050) and long-term climate change impacts. In addition, the study undertakes a cost-benefit analysis of selected adaptation actions on which basis “business cases” for adaptation can be identified.
This study indicates that t the mean daily temperature is on the rise and projected to increase further by 0.6°C up to 1.1°C or by 0.5°C up to 3.6°C under different scenarios. Projected impacts of climate change on yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Some regions in the north show increasing yields, while few regions in the south present decreasing yields. Crop models show that the areas suitable for cowpeas will decrease in Burkina Faso under future climate change conditions while the suitability for maize, millet and sorghum will remain stable. Moreover, the potential to produce multiple crops will become more and more difficult, which limits farmers’ diversification options. All four adaptation strategies explored in the study were found to be economically beneficial, can have a high potential for risk mitigation and entail different co-benefits.