A vital Atlantic current is fading far faster, threatening Europe, Africa and North America by 2100
A key Atlantic Ocean current system that helps regulate the planet's climate could weaken more than expected by 2100, with potentially devastating consequences worldwide, a new study has found. The latest study, published in the journal Science Advances, estimates that the system could slow by 51% by 2100 under a mid-range scenario for greenhouse gas emissions, with a margin of error of plus or minus eight percentage points.
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In its 2021 report, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said AMOC will "very likely decline" over this century. But the panel of international experts also expressed "medium confidence" that a collapse of AMOC would not take place before 2100.
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Stefan Rahmstorf, an oceanographer at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), said the paper showed that pessimistic models "are unfortunately the realistic ones, in that they agree better with observational data."
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Fabien Roquet, a physical oceanography professor at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, said the study was interesting but he cautioned that another team using a similar method reached opposite conclusions last year. "What is certain, however, is that the climate is warming rapidly," Roquet said.