In wake of Japan disaster, scientists aim for faster and more accurate tsunami warnings

By Alex Jackson

Manchester – In the 10 years since the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011, scientists have sought answers to a variety of questions relating to the deadly tsunami that began tearing through coastal communities just 15 minutes after the quake.

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The Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a local tsunami warning three minutes after the earthquake struck, and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, run by the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), also issued its regional warning six minutes later. The response times were indicative of the complex calculations and heavy computation required for tsunami warnings. NOAA had to first determine whether the earthquake had happened in the ocean basin, the likely state of deformation of the ocean floor, and the kind of motion it created.

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One recent project, announced in February, looks at how a new artificial intelligence model can harness the power of the world’s fastest supercomputer, Fugaku, to predict flooding in coastal areas before the tsunami reaches land.

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Whereas conventional prediction technologies require the use of supercomputers, once trained on Fugaku, the AI model can be run on ordinary computers. The research team applied the model to a simulation of tsunami flooding in Tokyo Bay on a standard PC. The predictions proved highly accurate within seconds, matching the flood modeling data released by the Cabinet Office.

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