How bushfires will affect Australia’s security

By Rachel Westrate

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Australia’s history with climate change has been complicated. While the country has sometimes taken early initiative and innovative action, it has long lagged behind other developed countries in the fight against climate change and has a history of denying the connection between the burning of fossil fuels and the climate emergency. Even in the face of the current fire season, Morrison has stated that the country will focus on resilience and adaptation to “prepare practically” for fires in the future but will not revisit its climate change mitigation policies. Indeed, even as the fires raged on, Australia was a key player in the breakdown of the climate talks in Madrid last month: The Australian delegation stated that the country would use previous credits under the Kyoto Protocol to count as emissions reductions to meet their Paris Agreement targets. This “loophole” has the effect of Australia “fulfilling” 90 percent of its reduction targets with credits it received before the Paris Agreement was even designed—a move that other countries consider out of touch with the commitment and spirit of the agreement.

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While allies have been quick to volunteer service members and resources to combat the fires that could affect their nearby countries, the Australian government’s lack of action on prevention and mitigation could strain its relationships with surrounding countries that want and need Australia to do more for the region’s climate security.

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The extraordinary national and international response to help combat the fires has been nothing short of necessary. However, the use of military resources to fight fires has the potential to leave military capacity strained elsewhere. If the current level of ADF involvement is needed year after year to respond to fire season, what would happen in the face of another, traditional national security emergency? Up to this point, Australia has relied primarily on local, volunteer firefighting services—yet the extreme need for military aid this time around signals that a more institutionalized and well-financed method of fire control and firefighting may be necessary to keep Australia safe from both military threats and natural disasters.

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More than 72,000 volunteer firefighters have taken time away from work to fight the bushfires, further disrupting the economy as businesses lose employees to the firefighting efforts. The drastic disruption in forest ecosystems will cause significant job loss and long-term economic damage in pulp, paper, timber and bioproducts production, according to the Australian Forest Products Association. Consumer confidence in the Australian economy fell to a four-year low in January, signaling the hesitance of Australians to trust the economy in the coming months. Economists have estimated that the bushfires in Australia will lower the country’s March quarter gross domestic product (GDP) between .01 and .02 percentage points. Total costs are likely to exceed US$3 billion, and overall GDP growth estimates have dropped by 0.3 percent.

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