Cities at risk: dealing with the pressures of climate change

Source(s): Carbon Disclosure Project

We live in a rapidly urbanizing world. In the next 30 years, some 70 million people will move to urban areas every single year. By 2050, two-thirds of the global population will live in cities.

We are already seeing the impacts of climate change which, unchecked, will subject populations to untold risk and suffering, push already struggling services to the brink and undermine city government's efforts to protect their citizens.

The first step to managing risk, is to measure it. In 2018, over 620 cities disclosed climate and environmental data to CDP. 530 of these cities - representing a combined population of 517 million - reported on climate hazards.

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CDP data shows that the top five hazards faced by cities are flash/surface flooding, heat waves, rain storms, extreme hot days and droughts.

Meanwhile long-term hazards are being notably less reported (11%). With 77% of long-term hazards being reported as posing a serious or extremely serious threat, cities must brace for these substantial, far-reaching climate impacts, and must begin taking their medium and long-term risks into further consideration.

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Concerningly, while we are seeing significant short-term hazards being reported, the medium and long-term hazards of climate change are currently being under-reported by cities. With the science showing that by 2050, eight times as many city dwellers will be exposed to high temperatures and 800 million more people could be at risk from the impacts of rising seas and storm surges, cities cannot afford to underestimate medium and longer-term hazards.

With rapid, unprecedented urban growth expected to continue in the coming decades, cities' vital infrastructure and social care services are already under pressure. Climate change is only set to exacerbate these existing social and economic challenges, as its physical impacts are set to bring major disruption to government and business operations.

While cities are implementing a mix of policy and planning projects and infrastructure based projects, cities are reporting more policy based solutions, with fewer investing in big infrastructure projects. However, with the physical risks of climate change looming, policy alone will not be enough to tackle the impending climate crisis - cities must take steps to ensure their infrastructure is prepped for upcoming hazards.

Only 46% of cities have completed vulnerability assessments.

Cities with vulnerability assessments are more than twice (2.7x) as likely to report long-term hazards, and are taking almost 6 times (5.7x) the amount of adaption actions compared to those cities that have not taken vulnerability assessments.

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high-quality vulnerability assessment involves engagement with a broad range of stakeholders, in order to identify any previously overlooked areas of vulnerability, offer a more nuanced understanding of the root cause of vulnerabilities and hence offer better-targeted adaptation responses.

How to boost action in the future

With the anticipated growth in urban populations, cities will continue to face a myriad of challenges in the coming decades, some of which will undermine their ability to address the impacts they face. But by investing in the right infrastructure and services, cities can take actions which will improve the lives of their citizens and build resilience against climate change.

In 2018, cities reporting through CDP identified wide ranging factors that could assist or hinder them in their transition to a climate resilient future. With 863 barriers to action compared with 456 enablers reported, cities appear more adept at identifying challenges than facilitators.

Cities are facing a wide range of barriers to action, which vary widely across regions, showing that there are no ‘one size fits all’ solutions when it comes to building city resilience.

In Latin America and Africa, access to basic services remains a key factor holding cities back from adopting resilience actions, while in Europe and North America poor infrastructure and budgetary capacity remain major stumbling blocks.

A similar level of diversity is seen when it comes to factors which could enable cities to take action, with a huge difference witnessed across regions.

However, in four of the six regions - North America, Europe, Oceania and Africa - cities cite access to quality information to be a key enabler action, again showing the vital importance for cities to measure and understand their risks and opportunities

The first step to action

Climate change represents a grave threat to cities across the planet. The world has already warmed 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels, even with drastic action to limit further warming, risks are set to continue to manifest for decades to come.

It is vital that cities act to build resilience, and protect their citizens from the impacts of climate change. The first step is for cities to understand their vulnerabilities. All cities should undertake full vulnerability assessments that do not just assess current risks, but those expected to hit in the coming years and decades.

The full data-set used to create this report can be found on our Open Data Portal.

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