‘Super El Niño’ could bring wet winter and flooding to western US, climate scientists warn
[...]
Climate scientists predict this year’s “super” El Niño, a label assigned when sea surface temperatures climb by at least 2C , will be the strongest of the century. The weather system is expected to intensify in the fall and winter, persisting until early spring 2027, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa).
California has a 70%-100% chance of experiencing above-average rainfall along its coast, according to a model from the European center for medium-range forecasts.
[...]
A 1982-83 weather system destroyed 33 oceanfront homes and damaged 3,000 other residences, according to the California coastal commission . In a 1997-98 El Niño, California experienced massive flooding and 17 storm-related deaths . In more recent history, during the El Niño winter of 2015-16, state officials reported record coastal erosion on California beaches.
[...]
El Niño is not expected to completely erase drought in the US south-west, where some reservoirs are at an all-time low. “It would have to be exceptionally wet,” Dr Joel Lisonbee, senior associate scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, told the Guardian in June. “That would also mean flooding, and the destruction and potential loss of life that comes along with that.”
[...]
While this is “a natural cycle”, Merrifield said at the town hall, the potential effects of a temporary sea-level rise in California from the super El Niño also “gives us a bit of a stress test of what the state is likely to experience with future climate change”.
[...]