Polymarket let users bet on wildfires. Lawmakers warn that could spur arson.

As wildfires rushed down the hills surrounding Los Angeles in January 2025, Polymarket users were trying to correctly predict how many acres would burn — chasing a payout for getting it right.

Some users appeared to grow uneasy, even as Polymarket let people bet on whether the fires would spread to nearby counties or when they might be contained.

“i hope i lose,” one user wrote in the site’s comments section, adding: “i wont cash out as i’m a man of my word.” Another replied, “Don’t be a man of your word, be a man of your money!”

By the time the fires were contained three weeks later, more than 30,000 acres had burned, 29 people had died and more than $1 million in fire-related bets had been wagered on Polymarket.

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