Millions of homes in London, Essex and Kent at risk of sinking as climate crisis worsens
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As hotter, drier summers driven by global heating become more frequent, the ground under houses can shrink and drag down a property’s foundations. The most vulnerable areas include London, Essex, Kent and a tranche of land from Oxford up to the Wash on England’s east coast, according to scientists, who say mitigation measures will be needed.
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Subsidence can substantially reduce a property’s value and lenders will often refuse to offer mortgages until it has been resolved. Signs include diagonal cracks around window and door frames, as well as sloping floors. It can require engineering work to stabilise land or underpin a property. In some cases, utility pipes need to be replaced and trees and vegetation removed.
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The GeoClimate dataset forecasts that, by 2070, about 500,000 properties could be affected under a low emissions scenario aligned to the Paris climate agreement . This rises to more than 1.8m properties under a medium scenario, closest to current global emissions trajectories.
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Highly populated parts of London including Camden, Islington and Barnet are most susceptible, as well as Kent in the south-east of England. Under the medium emissions scenario, the number of properties likely to be affected in the capital will exceed 26% by 2070.
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