Japan’s mega-quake that never was, and the danger of false alarms
Kanako Hosomura was working in a clothing store in Yokohama when an alert on her phone warned of an imminent magnitude 9.9 earthquake.“We all rushed outside,” Hosomura said, recalling how people poured out of nearby shops and offices to watch tall buildings and power lines for signs of shaking.
“Usually it takes maybe 20 seconds between the alarm and the earthquake, so when nothing happened we all just looked at each other. I was just about to go back inside when the second alert went [off], but a friend told me that it was just to cancel the first warning.”
The incident has raised concerns among experts that repeated false alarms could erode public confidence in Japan’s Emergency Earthquake Early Warning system, potentially making people hesitate when a genuine disaster strikes.Earthquake warnings are designed to give people precious seconds to take cover before strong shaking arrives. If people begin to doubt the system, experts warn, even a brief delay in taking action could cost lives.
The initial alert was issued at 12.40pm on Friday via mobile phones, television, radio and public loudspeaker systems. It predicted a magnitude 9.9 earthquake in Hokkaido and the Tohoku region of northeastern Japan, with shaking also expected in Tokyo and parts of central Japan.
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Causing further confusion on Friday, the agency used the same alarm to issue the cancellation eight minutes later, leading some residents to fear the second alert was a new warning rather than a recall.
The JMA publicly apologised for the error during a press conference on Friday and reiterated its apology in a statement sent to This Week in Asia, attributing the blunder to a software error.
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Public opinion has been split. Some social media users have criticised the agency for triggering widespread panic, while others said an unnecessary warning was better than no warning at all.
In an editorial published on Sunday, the Yomiuri newspaper called for a “prompt investigation” and measures to prevent a recurrence.
“False alerts have a significant impact on people’s lives,” the newspaper said, citing disruptions including the temporary suspension of the Tokaido Shinkansen bullet train service. Local governments also expressed concern that repeated false alerts could cause people to lose trust in the system and fail to evacuate in future emergencies.
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