Index reveals global water resources' growing dependence on extreme rainfall
As global temperatures climb, rainfall patterns are shifting in ways that could put water resources and agriculture under increasing strain, a new study published in Water Resources Research suggests.
While much attention has focused on how much rain will fall overall, researchers are now highlighting another concern: a growing share of that rain is coming in intense, extreme downpours rather than gentle, steady showers. This change, measured using a new metric called the Extreme Precipitation Dependency Index (EPDI), could reshape how societies manage water, crops, and infrastructure, even if climate targets are met.
The study, led by Mohammed Ombadi of the University of Michigan, U.S., and colleagues, examined global rainfall data from both observations and climate model projections.
Their findings indicate that, as the planet warms, extreme precipitation events are contributing an increasingly large fraction of annual rainfall. Even under scenarios consistent with the United Nations' current mitigation goals, the proportion of total precipitation falling on very wet days could rise sharply in many regions.
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