Climate change reshapes Spain's rockfall risk as frost weathering moves uphill
Climate change is altering where and when rocks are most likely to fracture across Spain, according to new research that suggests warming temperatures are redistributing a key process responsible for breaking down mountain landscapes.
The study, set to appear in The Cryosphere, examines how frost weathering—a natural process in which water freezes and expands inside pores and cracks within rocks—has changed across Spain over the past three decades. The findings show that while freezing activity is generally declining, some higher mountain regions continue to experience conditions favorable for rock breakdown, potentially shifting patterns of erosion and rockfall hazards. Although climate warming is often associated with the loss of snow and ice, its effects on frost-related processes are more complex.
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The study suggests that warming temperatures are effectively pushing active frost weathering upslope to higher elevations. This means climate change is not simply switching off frost-driven processes, but redistributing them. The authors describe this as a reorganization of cryospheric activity at the southern edge of Europe, where mountain environments are particularly sensitive to changes in temperature.
Based on these trends, Morales also estimated how conditions could evolve by 2050, suggesting that freezing will become increasingly restricted to high-altitude mountain areas, with the highest parts of the Pyrenees expected to remain the main stronghold for prolonged frost activity. At the same time, frost-free or only marginally affected areas are anticipated to expand across coastal regions and many of the country's major river basins, particularly in southern Spain.
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