Climate adaptation, governance gaps and the future of Europe’s coastal fisheries

Paul Müller from the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) explores climate adaptation, governance challenges, and the future of coastal fisheries in Europe

GERICS supports the development and use of climate change information and climate services in European fisheries

Coastal regions worldwide are confronted with the accelerating impacts of climate change. Rising sea levels, warming oceans, and ecosystem shifts are reshaping coastal economies across sectors, from tourism to fisheries. The governance of marine resources remains a critical but underdeveloped component that shapes the resilience of coastal communities worldwide.

In Europe, fisheries – especially small-scale coastal fisheries – stand at the intersection of climate change, governance gaps, and adaptation needs. The North Sea brown shrimp fishery is a particularly interesting case, as it shows both the pitfalls and the economic potential of European coastal communities. GERICS is working on climate change information and climate services to realise this economic potential.

Climate change impacts on European fisheries

Climate change is fundamentally altering European marine ecosystems, driving shifts in species distributions and food webs, with direct consequences for fisheries. These ecological changes will force fishers to adapt, often by targeting new or previously marginal species. Coastal fisheries, which operate with limited spatial flexibility, are especially vulnerable to these disruptions, in turn affecting coastal community resilience.

Yet, while climate impacts are evident, the institutional framework governing European fisheries has struggled to adapt. The EU’s Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) focuses primarily on quota-managed ‘commercial’ species. This structure leaves a significant proportion of exploited species, referred to here as non-managed, outside the management regime. These non-managed species represent a substantial share of regional economic activity but often, in comparison, remain invisible in policy and science – turning non-managed fisheries into a climate risk amplifier for the economies of coastal communities.

Governing climate change

These broader challenges are not unique to fisheries governance but mirror issues identified in global coastal adaptation debates. Effective climate adaptation requires coordinated action across scales, from local communities to regional and national institutions. In the context of coastal tourism, for example, cooperation between stakeholders and integration of climate knowledge into planning are seen as essential steps toward resilience. Similarly, in coastal municipalities, climate services – such as early warning systems, downscaled climate projections, and decision-support tools – are increasingly recognised as key instruments for informed adaptation.

Climate services for fisheries could provide early-warning indicators that combine ecological and socio-economic signals. For instance, recurring marine heatwaves could be translated into actionable thresholds that trigger precautionary management responses. Currently, however, decision-making is hampered by institutional inertia and therefore remains reactive rather than anticipatory. This rigidity further complicates adaptation.

The CFP and its quota allocation mechanism, based on historical catch shares, are resistant to change, even as species distributions shift geographically. This creates mismatches between ecological realities and management boundaries, which in turn lead to political tensions. While reforms have introduced sustainability objectives, such as the precautionary principle, implementation remains uneven and often delayed.

For non-managed species, the situation is even more problematic. Despite the formal inclusion of precautionary principles in EU policy, these are rarely applied in practice when data is limited. Instead, conservation measures are typically introduced only after clear evidence of overexploitation emerges, which is especially risky when rapid and non-linear ecological shifts can lead to sudden collapses.

The brown shrimp fishery under climate change

The North Sea brown shrimp (Crangon crangon) illustrates this dynamic. It is the target of one of the economically most important fisheries in the region and plays a crucial role in its ecology. Despite the fishery’s regional economic importance, it is not governed by a quota system but, instead, operates under a self-management plan. The absence of binding harvest control rules, monitoring systems and adaptive policy mechanisms makes it difficult to respond to ecological change in a timely and precautionary way.

New evidence shows that the brown shrimp discard is not fixed but strongly influenced by environmental and operational conditions – making it highly relevant for climate adaptation and the development of climate services. Among these factors, water temperature plays a particularly important role in discard mortality. This temperature-mortality relationship can serve as a real-time, actionable indicator of risk. For instance, elevated summer temperatures or marine heatwaves could trigger adaptive responses, such as reducing fishing effort or implementing temporary closures.

Therefore, temperature thresholds become not just scientific observations but practical decision-support tools. This interaction between environmental stressors and operational decisions underscores a key insight: climate change does not act in isolation; rather, it amplifies existing vulnerabilities.

Resilient coastal communities

Ultimately, building climate-resilient coastal fisheries requires integrating three key elements. First, adaptive governance frameworks that co-evolve with the existing social-ecological system. Second, cooperation between stakeholders, including fishers, scientists, and policymakers, is essential to ensure that adaptive strategies are both effective and socially acceptable. Third, climate services, such as temperature-based early-warning systems, must be embedded in decision-making processes.

Beyond the short-term integration of weather patterns, climate adaptation in fisheries must be recognised as part of a broader coastal governance agenda. Coastal tourism, urban planning, and marine resource management are deeply interconnected, and effective adaptation requires coordination across these sectors. By integrating lessons from other domains into fisheries management, Europe can move toward a more resilient and sustainable fisheries regime that supports both ecosystems and the communities that depend on them.