The frequency of extreme weather events can be predicted more accurately than presently possible by combining artificial intelligence (AI) with physical climate modelling, using a protocol called rare-event sampling. That’s the conclusion of a study from researchers in the US and France. The researchers used the approach to model extreme heat events such as the one currently roasting Europe, but they believe it could also be applicable to many other extreme events in climate science.
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Deep-learning algorithms, which ignore the underlying climate physics and simply train themselves using pattern recognition, require up to 10,000 times less computing power. However, the reliability of these in modelling extremely rare events is questionable. They also produce no insight into the physics of the events.
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In the new research Lancelin, Wikner and colleagues developed the AI+RES framework. An AI algorithm runs climatic simulations repeatedly and selects those that it predicts are most likely to lead to the rare event. A full climate model then simulates only these. The researchers used this protocol to compare the frequency of heatwaves at mid-latitudes, using the predictions of a relatively coarse-grained direct numerical simulation called PlaSim as the ground truth. They found that their technique produced similar results to PlaSim with up to 1000 times lower computational resources.
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This approach fails for short-term extreme events, however, because of the dynamic nature of the atmosphere. The AI model itself also failed to produce good accuracy when emulating the events, but it was “basically free” in terms of the computing power required, and provided a good starting point for the physical models.