Fragility and conflict

In Vanuatu, security can no longer be defined solely through traditional notions of defence and law enforcement. The country’s long-term stability increasingly depends on its capacity to adapt to climate change.

In Africa’s Sahel region, where communities are affected by both insecurity and environmental degradation, climate-induced displacement is increasing exposure to explosive hazards. At the same time, flooding and shifting landscapes can move or expose UXO.

This study introduces a novel, diagnostic hazard-specific displacement risk index that integrates high-resolution hazard data with social vulnerability metrics and historical displacement records.

This report outlines how climate change, conflict and fragility converge in the same regions, driving displacement and heightening disaster risk in countries least able to manage shocks.

This report shows how climate shocks intensify fragility in the Sahel and Horn of Africa, and argues that locally led adaptation, stronger governance, and regional cooperation are essential to reduce risks and build long‑term stability.

Pacific Island countries have received scarce attention in research on climate change and conflict. This is surprising given the Pacific Island countries’ high climate vulnerability and increasing geopolitical relevance.

Researchers from Mozambique, South Africa, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, the United States, and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess the extent to which human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of a heavy rainfall event.