Quantifying global internal displacement risk at the hazard-vulnerability-conflict nexus

This study introduces a novel, diagnostic hazard-specific displacement risk index that integrates high-resolution hazard data with social vulnerability metrics and historical displacement records, uncovering overlooked compound risks in conflict areas and links between environmental stress and instability. Our methodology combines historical displacement records with environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic indicators to identify high-risk regions and quantify interactions between hazards and conflict across six major hazard types. Results reveal floods as the primary displacement driver, particularly in South Asia (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan) and Sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria, Ethiopia), where dense populations in flood-prone areas intersect with low socioeconomic resilience. 

Droughts disproportionately impact arid regions, with Somalia, Ethiopia, and Afghanistan facing extreme risks. Our analysis documents significant compound displacement events, including 1.5 million people displaced in Afghanistan in 2023, and critical hotspots in Syria, Nigeria, Yemen, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The frequency analysis identifies Peru (487 events), Somalia (310), and Yemen (253) as leading nations in compound displacement frequency, predominantly driven by floods and droughts exacerbated by political instability. Conflict-affected countries exhibit co-occurrence of conflict displacement and hazard exposure, 89% of conflict-displaced populations in Somalia (2.72 million people) and 99% in Yemen (4.39 million people) were simultaneously exposed to natural hazards in 2023, compared to 42% (1.5 million) in Ethiopia. Our findings reveal environment-conflict feedback loops, underscoring the need for integrated climate adaptation and peacebuilding strategies in fragile and conflict-affected zones.