Supply Chain Failure
Supply chain failure refers to an event in the supply chain that disrupts the flow of materials on their journey from initial suppliers through to final customers (Walters, 2007).
Primary reference(s)
Waters, C.D.J., 2007. Supply Chain Risk Management: Vulnerability and Resilience in Logistics. Accessed 25 January 2025.
Annotations
Additional scientific description
There is no single best definition of the term supply chain (UNECE, 2016). Supply chains have been defined as a network of connected and interdependent organizations mutually and co-operatively working together to control, manage and improve the flow of materials and information from suppliers to end users.
Failure of supply chains reduces resilience in disaster risk management. In today's highly competitive industries, the reality facing most prime or focal manufacturing organisations around the world is one where resources have been reduced, inventory has been drained, technology spending curtailed, and processes that are not core to an organisation's business have been scaled back and/or outsourced. In competitive global marketplaces, prime manufacturers cannot afford to have any area of their operations compromised. Supply chain operations need to be robust and resilient in order to retain and increase market share. Supply chain failure is a phenomenon that can potentially cause major issues for many organisations, especially when failure becomes persistent (Karsten, 2018).
International trade is vital to the world economy. Businesses that trade internationally are supported by interlinked global supply chains, which are vital to their competitiveness. But as some recent events highlight, these dynamic, complex systems are vulnerable to numerous risks. Because of their interconnectedness, even small, localised events can escalate rapidly and cause significant disruptions (WEF, 2014). Supply chain performance is critical to business success; hence, supply chain disturbances could have a significant effect on the availability of goods and services as these are reduced; additionally, the cost of goods may; demand may increase dramatically, for example for building materials; and might lead to, for example, panic buying. These impacts may lead to a sudden increase in demand, having the potential to disrupt entire supply chains (Dulam et al., 2020).
Critical infrastructure relies on supply chain supplies in order to provide essential services for community, national, regional and global resilience. This includes water, transportation and telecommunications infrastructure, educational facilities, hospitals and other health facilities that ensure all remain safe, effective and operational during and after disasters in order to provide lifesaving and essential services.
Metrics and numeric limits
Various metrics exist and these include:
- The Lead Time Index measures on-the-ground trade logistics performance, helping national leaders, key policymakers, and private sector traders understand the challenges they and their trading partners face in reducing logistical barriers to international commerce. (World Bank no date)
- Port Congestion Index (PCI) is a metric that measures the level of congestion at a port, offering a comprehensive view of how efficiently a port is operating (Spire Maritime Docs no date),
- Inventory Turnover Ratio is a measure of the number of times inventory is sold or used in a time period such as a year (Oracle Net Suite, 2024)
- On-time delivery, where a 25% drop in on-time delivery indicates a significant decline in a company's ability to meet promised delivery deadlines. This metric, often referred to as On-Time Delivery (OTD), is a key performance indicator (KPI) for businesses, particularly in e-commerce and manufacturing, and reflects how well they are fulfilling customer orders within the expected timeframe. (McKinsey and Company, 2019)
Key relevant UN convention / multilateral treaty
The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (UNDRR, 2015).
Other multi-lateral treaties such as Basel III (Bank for International Settlements) are cross-sector. For example, Basel III 2017-2028 is an internationally agreed set of measures developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in response to the financial crisis of 2007-09. The measures aim to strengthen the regulation, supervision, and risk management of banks. It sets international standards and minimums for bank capital requirements, stress tests, liquidity regulations, and leverage, with the goal of mitigating the risk of bank runs and bank failures and any cascading impacts (BIS
Drivers
Over recent decades, supply chains have globalised, specialised and become leaner or just-in-time. They are more efficient, and less risky in certain areas, but potentially more exposed to a breakdown of cooperation. With economic instability, food insecurity, technology reduced availability affecting for example., semiconductors, and failure to provide adequate medical supplies in crises supply chain failures are more impactful.
Supply chain managers have encountered many shocks such as the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, Thailand's flooding, the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland, the maritime piracy upsurge, (Doherty and Botwright, 2020) .and the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic (WHO, no date), all of these shook supply chains across entire regions.
Impacts
A 2012 World Economic Forum survey of supply chain professionals ranked disruptions most likely to provoke significant and systemic effects on supply chain networks. The list included pandemics, natural hazards, extreme weather, conflict, demand shocks, ICT breakdowns, and export/import restrictions such as export restrictions currently being placed on medical supplies. Triggers of supply chain disruption are hard to predict, and sometimes neither controllable nor influenceable. The robustness of networks is paramount to ensuring demand can be met with supply even in extraordinary times (Doherty and Botwright, 2020).
Large-scale natural hazards such as earthquakes and tsunamis can disrupt the entire regional supply chain. As supply chains become more globalized and complex, their vulnerabilities increase. For example, when a flood causes logistical disruptions and a pandemic simultaneously leads to a shortage of labour, recovery of the supply chain becomes even more challenging. Additionally, in complex supply chains, a single disruption can have a cascading effect on other parts, which can accelerate supply chain failure in a multi-hazard context (Ye & Abe, 2012).
Multi-hazard context
The figure below summarises common interactions between supply chain failure and other hazards. This information should be used with caution and not be solely relied upon in Disaster Risk Management, particularly as some interactions may not have been included. Note that hazardous events occurring together or locally in space or time may not necessarily cause, amplify, or be otherwise related to each other. Specific examples of multi-hazard context can be found in the ‘Hazard drivers’ and ‘Impacts’ sections above.
Multi-hazard diagram
Risk Management
It is clear that a supply chain problem can harm critical national infrastructure, national resilience, health, banking and wider sectoral resilience; and even a company’s ability to deliver its services or goods and could impact its viability. The Sendai Framework has a strong emphasis on disaster risk management as opposed to disaster management. The scope of disaster risk reduction has been broadened significantly to focus on both natural and man-made hazards and related environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks (UNDRR, 2015).
Following large-scale and catastrophic disasters, local organisations integrate with other responding organisations to form hastily developed disaster relief supply chain networks. Unfortunately, even where sound supply chain management practices are used, supply networks have encountered diverse levels of resilience and adequate disaster relief performance has remained elusive (Day, 2014).
The private sector is a critical participant in the creation of risk-resilient societies. ARISE, the Private Sector Alliance for Disaster Resilient Societies, is a network of private sector entities led by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). The Philippine Disaster Resilience Foundation (PDRF) provides an example of how ARISE and the impact of its work on supply chain support after the 2013 typhoon. The PDRF reported on a public‐private partnership for a livelihood seeding program in a post‐disaster context working in a post‐disaster scenario in the Province of Leyte:
- The PDRF designed an early recovery programme with national government agencies, local government units, and international non-governmental organisations – leveraging the capabilities of each organisation in support of micro- and small enterprises and the normalisation of the local supply chain.
- The Post Disaster Needs Assessment provided programme partners with a way forward to support affected communities and livelihood outside of relief packages of ‘starter kits’ including items such as kitchenware, gas stoves and cooking equipment for food business owners and grocery stocks, bags of rice and weighing scales for sarisari storeowners. In helping to jumpstart early recovery, people were provided with the opportunity to help themselves and regain their businesses. They also reported that another benefit of this early recovery activity was the stabilising of market prices for basic commodities and deterring opportunists that prey on the vulnerability of the community’s situation.
- Two months after the Post Disaster Needs Assessment beneficiaries were able to group into clusters/sectors (dressmaking, eatery/carinderia operations, delicacy making, and food vending). Sub-sector members were able to gather, discuss updates on their businesses, identify potential markets, and update themselves with market trends (UNDRR, no date).
Risk managers, organisational resilience and business continuity leads should be aware of previous disruptions and address the five priority strategies to improve control measures further: risk quantification, scenario planning, data sharing, trusted networks, and multi-stakeholder input to legislation (Doherty and Botwright, 2020).
The Sendai Framework mentions strengthening the resilience of supply chains as an important goal for disaster risk reduction (UNDRR, 2015). EWS helps to identify risks that could impact the supply chain by providing early warnings before a disaster occurs, allowing for preparedness and response measures. Additionally, when disaster warnings are provided, businesses can take steps to minimize the impact on their supply chains, and communities can develop evacuation plans, making EWS extremely important.
Monitoring
No information Available
References
Bank for International Settlements (BIS), no date. Basel III: International Regulatory Framework for Banks. Accessed 20 May 2025.
Day, J.M., 2014. Fostering emergent resilience: the complex adaptive supply network of disaster relief. International Journal of Production Research, 52:1970–1988.
Doherty, S., & Botwright, K., 2020. What past disruptions can teach us about reviving supply chains after COVID-19. World Economic Forum (WEF). Accessed 20 May 2025.
Dulam, R., Furuta, K., & Kanno, T., 2020. An agent-based simulation to study the effect of consumer panic buying on supply chain. In: De La Prieta, F. et al. (eds), Highlights in Practical Applications of Agents, Multi-Agent Systems, and Trust-worthiness. pp. 255–266. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-51999-5_21
Karsten, C., 2018. The dynamics of supply chain failure. Accessed 20 May 2025.
McKinsey & Company, 2019. Defining ‘on-time, in-full’ in the consumer sector. Accessed 20 May 2025.
Oracle NetSuite, 2024. Inventory Turnover Ratio Defined: Formula, Tips, & Examples. Accessed 20 May 2025.
Spire Maritime Docs, no date. The Port Congestion Index. Accessed 20 May 2025.
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), no date. A Public‐Private Partnership for a Livelihood Seeding Program in a Post‐Disaster Context. Accessed 20 May 2025.
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), 2015. Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. Accessed 8 November 2020.
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), 2016. Informative document for the 73rd session of the Inland Transport Committee (ITC), Agenda item 10(g) Supply Chain Challenges for National Competitiveness through Transport. Accessed 20 May 2025.
World Economic Forum (WEF), 2014. Building Resilience in Supply Chains. Accessed 20 May 2025.
World Health Organization (WHO), no date. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Accessed 20 May 2025.
World Bank, no date. Metadata Glossary: Lead time to import, median case (days) (Indicator: LP.IMP.DURS.MD). Accessed 20 May 2025.
Ye, L., & Abe, M., 2012. The impacts of natural disasters on global supply chains. Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network (ARTNeT) Working Paper Series, No. 115.