Strengthening flood risk modelling and sovereign insurance readiness in Madagascar

This case study examines how African Risk Capacity (ARC) supported the development of a scientifically robust, reinsurer-validated flood risk model for Madagascar to enable access to sovereign flood insurance alongside existing drought and cyclone coverage. The initiative integrated hazard maps, exposure data and vulnerability information to identify flood-prone areas, populations, infrastructure, crops and potential impacts. These datasets fed into a probabilistic flood model that generated risk profiles and estimated economic losses from flood events. A loss module translated flood footprints into estimated damages, while predefined parametric triggers determined when insurance payouts should be activated. National technical working groups also received training on model customisation, monitoring, forecasting and contingency planning.

This case study finds that the project positioned Madagascar among the first African countries to complete all technical development stages of a sovereign flood insurance product under the ARC pilot initiative. Underwriting readiness was confirmed with reinsurers’ endorsement of the model, enabling insurance coverage, and Madagascar became the first country to secure sovereign flood insurance coverage in Africa for the 2026 wet season. The publication highlights how integrating flood forecasting, risk modelling and parametric insurance mechanisms strengthened financial preparedness, improved understanding of flood risks, and enhanced national capacity for anticipatory action and contingency planning.