Community-led approaches to anticipatory action
In the Philippines, Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, and Ecuador, anticipatory action demonstrated how proactive, community-led approaches can save lives and strengthen resilience.
In the Philippines, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) developed a forecast-based MHEWS in typhoon-exposed regions like Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and Caraga. Using probabilistic forecasting and pre-agreed triggers - such as wind speeds exceeding 136 km/h - the system activated early distribution of cash assistance and modular shelters before typhoon landfall, enabling dignified pre-evacuation. Complementing this, localised flood alerts were co-designed with LGUs and residents through participatory mapping and manual tracking for signal-poor areas. A key element was the Risk Index for Climate Displacement, which overlays vulnerability and hazard data to predict displacement and guide local planning, which is now integrated into climate funding processes.
In Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, home to the world's largest refugee settlement, IOM tailored a camp-level MHEWS for landslides, floods, and cyclones, where terrain degradation and dense informal shelters posed extreme risks. Over 1,600 volunteers (50% women) formed Disaster Management Units to issue warnings via sirens, megaphones, and radio networks. Anticipatory measures included relocating households from danger zones, implementing nature-based solutions like bamboo slope reinforcement, and pre-positioning emergency supplies. Local coordination, including partnerships with government, host communities, and 'Camps-in-Charge' enabled drainage improvements and awareness campaigns, reducing fatalities and expanding EWS coverage to over 500,000 residents.
The coastal city of Manta in Ecuador has advanced its tsunami preparedness through a community-led approach, combining technical innovation with local engagement. Partnering with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Manta's municipal government introduced visible communication tools in flood-prone public spaces, including "totems" with QR-linked web maps showing evacuation routes and 23 designated safe zones. These efforts were bolstered by in-person outreach and social media campaigns designed to build public awareness and autonomy in disaster response. Community participation has steadily grown, with evacuation drills in 2023 and 2025 showing marked improvements in responsiveness. By 2025, 4,000 residents and 60 institutions took part, voluntarily initiating evacuation upon siren activation and effectively navigating routes using locally understood signage. This demonstrated a shift from reliance on officials to empowered self-protective action. Having experienced the benefits of this approach, the municipal government doubled its preparedness budget and expanded coverage of visual alerts. Evacuation speeds remain a challenge, requiring ongoing work with communities.