Coastal flood risk to European surface transport infrastructure at different global warming levels

This paper presents a fully probabilistic assessment of coastal flood risk to Europe’s surface transport infrastructure at different levels of global warming. This is particularly important as European coastal regions host a dense transport network that supports various human activities and well-being. The threat posed by global warming, which is expected to increase, is that of coastal flooding risk, whose impact on existing and planned European transport systems was previously unknown. This study aims to to fill this vital knowledge gap.

The results find that, under baseline conditions (1980–2020), 1,592 km of networks are affected annually, causing expected annual damage of up to €722 million. Roads are projected to be more affected than railways in all countries. Passenger and haulage transport within the low-elevation coastal zone are currently overwhelmingly road dependent, which signals potential for widespread disruptions unless transportation modes change. With 1.5 °C warming, the Europe-wide expected annual damage may reach €1,108 million, and with 4 °C, it is projected to be as high as €1,487 million.