Little change in warming outlook for four years; new 2035 climate targets make no difference

This report is the Climate Action Tracker's latest global update, released at the COP30. The methodology consists of an analysis of government Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in order to determine future temperature projections - and therefore the feasibility of meeting warming target thresholds. 

The results show that for the fourth consecutive year, there is little to no measurable progress in warming projections. This is because almost none of the 40 governments the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analyses have updated their 2030 target, which is critical to keep warming levels below 1.5°C, nor have they set out the kind of action in new 2035 targets needed to change course. As a result, the temperature projection for the "2030 and 2035 targets scenario", the one estimating impact of submitted climate targets (NDCs) to date, remains at 2.6°C, the same as last year. In other words, the 2035 NDCs so far submitted don't change the dial in terms of keeping warming to 1.5˚C.