Global: Multi-dimensional risk analysis informs Common Country Analyses and Cooperation Frameworks

This case study was collected through a Call for Good Practices on Reducing Risk across SDG Transitions, launched by the UN DRR Focal Points Group in 2024.

SDGs addressed: applies to all six SDG transitions, with country-specific focus on the most affected goals

From 2022 - 2024 UN Resident Coordinator Offices (RCOs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Mozambique, Panama, Somalia and Timor-Leste worked with UNDRR to pilot a light yet systemic multi-dimensional risk-analysis (MDRA) approach for their Common Country Analyses (CCAs). In a first step and evidence-based, multi-dimensional risk analysis is prepared. This includes likely scenarios and their application against the six SDG transitions (food systems, digital transformation, climate/ biodiversity/ pollution, jobs/ social protection, education and energy access/ affordability). The analysis is then refined and validated with help of a joint workshop (including Cooperation Framework stakeholders, Programme Management Team Focal points, humanitarian partners in HPC contexts). In a last step a synthesis is developed and included in the CCA. The approach includes analyzing interdependencies, cascading impacts across systems, and using foresight tools to explore risk scenarios and pathways affecting SDG transitions.Using secondary data, foresight tools and joint validation workshops, teams identified how hazards cascade across sectors-food systems, digital transformation, climate action, social protection, urbanisation and energy-and how those risks could derail Cooperation Framework (CF) strategic outcomes.

Innovation and Success factors

• Systems lens breaks single-hazard silos, revealing interdependent risks.
• Workshop validation ensures shared understanding and rich local data.
• Alignment with SDG transitions and Cooperation Framework strategic outcomes make risk analysis findings actionable.

Key impacts

• Cooperation Framework stakeholders now have a shared, forward-looking understanding of multidimensional risk for the next Cooperation Framework cycle.
• Action points - e.g., Somalia layered flood, drought and conflict activities across the HDP nexus; Guatemala flagged cyber risks to digital-government goals.

Lessons learned for replication or adaptation

1. Technical backstopping is essential-RCOs need hands-on support, not just guidance notes.
2. Follow-up planning & budgeting must be built in, or risk analyses remain stand-alone products.
3. Multi-stakeholder workshops improve data quality and foster ownership.
4. Secondary-data approach keeps costs low and speeds replication.
5. Linking to SDG transitions makes results relevant for policy dialogue and investment.

Organisations involved

• UN entities: UNDRR (technical lead), DCO, OCHA (HPC contexts), UN Country Teams, Resident Coordinator Offices.
• Government partners: Ministries of Humanitarian Affairs, International Cooperation, Education; National Disaster-Management Authorities.