Ten years of Sendai: five big changes in disaster risk reduction and what comes next
The year 2015 was pivotal for multilateral diplomacy, including the announcement of the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement on climate change. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, also signed in 2015, has kept a low profile by comparison. Nonetheless, as a blueprint for collective action to prevent and reduce complex disaster risks, the Sendai Framework has driven important changes in how governments plan for multi-hazard disasters that should not go unrecognised.
In many ways 2025 seems like a different world to 2015. Overlapping threats - a pandemic, climate change, armed conflicts, food insecurity - have impacts that spread around the world and that impact all sectors. These threats, commonly referred to as a 'poly-crisis', highlight the importance of embedding disaster risk reduction into socio-economic development policies and planning.
The upcoming Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction is a pivotal moment for reflection on the development of disaster risk reduction thinking so far, and for setting out bold thinking on what needs to comes next.
We've tracked five important changes which have reshaped the disaster risk landscape in the past ten years:
1. Early warning and anticipatory action progressed, but with limits
Early warning systems, once viewed as a purely technical endeavour, are now a cornerstone of disaster risk governance. Thanks to advances in satellite imagery, AI-driven forecasting, community-based sensors and risk assessments, forecasts can be used to trigger anticipatory action before a hazard turns into a disaster. Countries like Bangladesh, Mongolia, and Somalia are scaling up pre-disaster cash transfers, livestock relocation schemes, and supply chain readiness plans that save lives and protect livelihoods. The next frontier is the expansion of anticipatory systems in rural, remote, and conflict-affected areas.
2. Disaster risk financing comes of age
The Sendai Framework's focus on 'investment' as a core priority for disaster risk reduction has helped bring finance to the forefront of the risk conversation. Since 2015, disaster risk financing has taken off as a way of tackling climate-driven losses and damages, influencing climate diplomacy through the creation of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage at COP28, and expanding its scope to include slow-onset events like desertification and sea level rise.
But disaster risk finance today is no longer just about "who pays for the damage" - it's about keeping development on track, even amid disruption. Parametric insurance - where payouts are triggered by the occurrence of a pre-defined event, such as a hurricane or typhoon, rather than by the extent of actual damage or loss - is on the rise, with sovereign risk pools across Africa, the Caribbean, and the Pacific providing some liquidity to countries hit by disasters. The Global Shield against Climate Risks, meanwhile, is focusing on making insurance more affordable for vulnerable countries.
3. Disaster law and international protection are stronger
A quiet but powerful development over the past decade has been the growing legal recognition of disaster risk reduction. In 2024, the UN General Assembly committed to developing a legally binding instrument by 2027 to protect people during disasters. Unlike the Sendai Framework, which is a voluntary agreement, such a instrument would introduce legal accountability, fundamentally reshaping state obligations to protect their citizens. The IFRC's Disaster Law Programme laid the groundwork for these normative changes, but countries - especially those most at risk - will need support in translating legal commitments into institutional and community-level capacities.
4. Gender equality moves from principle to practice
The Gender Action Plan (Sendai GAP), launched in 2024, acknowledges that risk is not gender-neutral and that women and girls often face higher exposure to disaster impacts due to social and economic inequalities. The GAP aims to reduce gender-related disaster risk by 2030, and highlights the need to increase investment and inclusive strategies that promote intersectional risk management. There are already signs that countries are beginning to act: integrating gender budgeting, inclusion metrics, and the participation of women-led organisations and a "whole-of-society" approach into disaster risk reduction planning. Nepal's Strategic Action Plan for Gender Equality, Disability and Social Inclusion in Disaster Risk Reduction and Management is one such example. As reporting on the Sendai GAP begins, countries will need to move from commitments to measurable impacts.
5. Fragility and conflict enter the disaster risk reduction discourse
One of the most profound shifts since 2015 has been the inclusion of conflict and fragility in disaster risk thinking. Over the past ten years there has been greater recognition of how conflict amplifies vulnerability to natural hazards, including climate change. Recent updates to the UN's Hazard Information Profiles now include societal hazards such as armed conflict, demonstrating the shift towards taking into account different types of shocks.
Many countries lack the institutions, capacities and government support required to deliver disaster risk reduction in conflict-affected places, and investment in these contexts is often limited as they are seen to be too 'high risk'. Yet the risks of inaction in these places far outweigh the risks of investing. Donors and banks need to embrace uncertainty to act in fragile and conflict-affected places; and on a practical level, disaster risk reduction efforts must take place alongside wider efforts to build peace, stability, socio-economic development and climate resilience.
What's next: from now until 2030 and beyond
In a world of increasingly overlapping crises, Sendai's multi-hazard approach is more important than ever before. With aid budgets shrinking and economies slowing, it is essential that disaster risk reduction approaches continue to be prioritised.
This means action on several fronts: reinvigorating efforts to integrate disaster risk reduction in development processes through enforceable guidelines, rather than relying solely on aspirational goals. It is also essential to strengthen system-wide capacities to build resilience - across finance, infrastructure, food systems, jobs and education - to effectively address compound and cascading risks. Finally, countries must be able to access finance to carry out national risk assessments and to close the data gaps on disaster impacts (loss and damage), and the effectiveness of the disaster risk reduction interventions, not to add an additional reporting burden to countries but to augment and strengthen risk reporting and accountability to those affected by disasters.
More generally, a post-Sendai world in 2030 must embrace a broader vision of resilience - one that prioritises systemic resilience and risk-informed development, and ensures disaster risk reduction is no longer voluntary but rather central to all countries' socio-economic development.