Associations between early warning message completeness, reception mode, and protective action across four at-risk communities in Ethiopia and South Africa

This article examines how the completeness and delivery of early warning messages are associated with protective action in at-risk communities. Based on a mixed-methods survey of 535 respondents across four communities in Ethiopia and South Africa, it assesses six warning components: timing, location, magnitude, expected impact, probability and recommended response. The study finds that warning awareness and message completeness were generally higher in the sampled Ethiopian communities, where direct communication was more common, while direct recipients across the study reported more complete messages and higher rates of proactive response.

The key takeaway is that effective early warning systems depend not only on accurate forecasts but also on how warnings reach communities and whether they provide clear, relevant and actionable information. The study highlights the need for people-centred dissemination, locally tailored impact-based messages and stronger attention to inequalities in warning access. It recommends community-based communication networks, participatory message design and better integration of vulnerability information into early warning systems, while noting that the observed associations do not establish causation. These findings can inform efforts under the Early Warnings for All initiative to improve warning accessibility and effectiveness.