Diagnosing pandemic disaster risk management through impact chains and forensic analysis: an intertwined DRM model and key lessons from the hospital network in Bucharest, Romania

This study aimed to examine the nuanced interplay between pandemic impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options, and how this unfolded across the disaster risk management DRM cycle (preparedness, response, and recovery). The methodological framework relies on an Impact Chain and forensic analysis, which provide an analytical perspective that is currently missing from the literature. The case study focused on the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of the hospital network in Bucharest in 2020–2022.

This approach provides a basis for pinpointing shortcomings in mitigation specific to this case study and for formulating three key lessons for improved pandemic DRM. A key finding is that the DRM phases are distorted in long-lasting, wave pattern-based hazards like the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a new, intertwined DRM model. The model highlights that preparedness measures are scarcely implemented due to the wave pattern of the hazard, leading to inconsistent efforts to mitigate vulnerability. The lessons draw attention to prioritizing the resolution of deeply rooted vulnerabilities that stem from the underfunding of the Romanian medical system, designing far-reaching adaptation options, and troubleshooting them prior to implementation. These findings provide entry points for developing more proactive, scientifically-grounded mitigation frameworks that overcome the limitations reflected in the intertwined DRM model.