Document / Publication
Social Science Research Network (SSRN)
This paper presents a framework to assess the individual and regional risk of COVID-19 along with risk communication tools and mechanisms. Relative risk scores on a scale of 100 represent the integrated risk of influential factors. The personal risk model incorporates: age, exposure history, symptoms, local risk and existing health condition, whereas regional risk is computed through the actual cases of COVID-19, public health risk factors, socioeconomic condition of the region, and immigration statistics. A web application tool (www.covira.info) has been developed, where anyone can assess their risk and find the guided information links primarily for Nepal.
The authors conclude that regional risk assessment would support the government and community to act locally, which will give a clear way out to manage the risk wisely, refrained from any compromise on public health. Specifically, the regional risk and transmission map could help support essential supply chains at the time of absolute lockdown across the country. This multidisciplinary, holistic approach of risk assessment and communication can be extended to any other future pandemic and natural disasters.
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