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  • Report 13 - Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
    https://www.preventionweb.net/go/72078

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Report 13 - Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries

Source(s):  Imperial College London

Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social distancing including local and national lockdowns.

In this report, the authors use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact of these interventions across 11 European countries. Their methods assume that changes in the reproductive number - a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour.



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  • Report 13 - Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
  • Publication date 2020
  • Author(s) Flaxman, Seth; Mishra, Swapnil; Gandy, Axel et al.
  • Number of pages 35 p.

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