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  • How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?
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How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

Source(s):  Lancet, the

Governments will not be able to minimise both deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the economic impact of viral spread. Keeping mortality as low as possible will be the highest priority for individuals; hence governments must put in place measures to ameliorate the inevitable economic downturn. In our view, COVID-19 has developed into a pandemic, with small chains of transmission in many countries and large chains resulting in extensive spread in a few countries, such as Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan.

Most countries are likely to have spread of COVID-19, at least in the early stages, before any mitigation measures have an impact.

What has happened in China shows that quarantine, social distancing, and isolation of infected populations can contain the epidemic.

This impact of the COVID-19 response in China is encouraging for the many countries where COVID-19 is beginning to spread. However, it is unclear whether other countries can implement the stringent measures China eventually adopted. Singapore and Hong Kong, both of which had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics in 2002–03, provide hope and many lessons to other countries. In both places, COVID-19 has been managed well to date, despite early cases, by early government action and through social distancing measures taken by individuals.



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  • How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?
  • Publication date 2020
  • Author(s) Anderson, Roy M.; Heesterbeek, Hans; Klinkenberg, Don et al.
  • Number of pages 4 p.

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