Variable vertical land motion and its impacts on sea level rise projections

Using high-resolution (90-meter) satellite data from 2015 to 2023, this study provides local vertical land motion (VLM) estimates for California and assesses their contribution to sea level rise both now and in future. Coastal VLM including uplift and subsidence, can greatly alter relative sea level projections and flood mitigations plans. Yet, current projection frameworks, such as the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, often underestimate VLM by relying on regional linear estimates.

The study findings reveal that regional estimates substantially understate sea level rise in parts of San Francisco and Los Angeles, projecting more than double the expected rise by 2050. Additionally, temporally variable (nonlinear) VLM, driven by factors such as hydrocarbon and groundwater extraction, can increase uncertainties in 2050 projections by up to 0.4 meters in certain areas of Los Angeles and San Diego. This study highlights the critical need to include local VLM and its uncertainties in sea level rise assessments to improve coastal management and ensure effective adaptation efforts.