Rainfall patterns and their association with flood fatalities across diverse Euro-Mediterranean regions over 41 years

This study analyses 2245 fatalities from 11 territories (1980–2020) in the Euro-Mediterranean region using the FFEM-DB and global MSWEP rainfall datasets. Extreme rainfall is shown to be a significant risk factor, with fatal floods in many regions associated with rainfall exceeding the 99th percentile of daily values over 41 years. However, in some territories, fatalities also occurred under less severe rainfall, reflecting regional differences in exposure and vulnerability. In the South European-Mediterranean region (South EU-Med), deadly floods are triggered mainly by higher 24-hour rainfall than in the Central EU.

Autumn is the most hazardous season, though summer floods in the South EU-Med demonstrate heightened exposure and impact severity. The findings are discussed in light of the climatology, geomorphology, and societal vulnerabilities, highlighting the importance of tailored management strategies to address regional disparities, particularly as climate change intensifies rainfall patterns across the Euro-Mediterranean region.