The heatwave in North India and Pakistan in April-May 2022

A real-time attribution study was conducted during the heatwave that affected large parts of North India and Pakistan in April-May 2022. The analysis was produced with a system developed in Hadley Centre for the attribution of extremes in near-real time. In total, the study uses data from 14 models that provide the necessary experiments for event attribution, namely historical simulations extended to the end of the 21st century with the medium emissions scenario SSP2-4.5 (ALL) and simulations with natural forcings only (NAT) to year 2020.

The study aims to a) estimate the likelihood of the combined April and May temperature reaching a new record in year 2022 over a region that has so far been largely affected by high temperature anomalies (62-86E; 23-31N) and b) assess the role of anthropogenic forcings in the changing likelihood of extreme heatwaves.